What's on Your Horizon?

Oct 16 (Melbourne), Oct 18 (Sydney), Oct 22 (Adelaide)

Audio recording (1:04:00; 44 Mb mp3) video recording (Sydney, Oct 18)

URLs from presentation

"The future is here- it's just not evenliy distributed yet" William F Gibson
It’s a quote that many in our field have heard, but is worth keeping in mind… a future does not come in on us like a big crashing wave, but it bubbles up, morphs, and is in our plain sight right now.

Inventing the Future by Tim O’Reilly (2002)

Tracking down the original citation

How to Forecast the Future
Forecaster Paul Saffo explains how to recognize it when you see it. "Predicting is about certainty, and forecasting is about appreciating uncertainty. Forecasting gives a context for decision-makers to act in the face of uncertainty. In the business world, uncertainty is our friend, because uncertainty is opportunity."

Seeing the Future
More than 25 years since this Centel ad for a mobile phone - isn’t that a sleek handset? And it’s a not to future ad styles (despite the cheesy music and 1980s hair) in that the ad does not put a gadget to the center; it’s a “story” - of course hen Centel came out, you were limited to the range of 3 towers in the Chicago area

1989 Centel Phone Ad

Australia Top 60 Web 2.0 Companies
Read/Write Web

Many times I am asked by people if your country, “Is Australia Innovative”? Would you believe “yes”

May 2007 internet penetration of 72% (better than US,

Visionary Doug Engelbart did quite a bit more than invent the mouse, but also pioneered the Graphics User Interface. His Stanford demo in 1968 “The Mother of all Demos” was groundbreaking vision for features we see as normal in computers. But he did more than innovated technology, he had visions for the future of organizations


Watch video

Organizational Layers -- how does education for layer “C? Explained by audio friom Bryan Alexander
A Strategy for Organizational Fitness 1991

Toward High-Performance Organizations, 1992

Bryan Alexander

Listen to audio:

3M and Google provide Time for R&D-
We offer our engineers "20-percent time" so that they're free to work on what they're really passionate about. Google News, Google Suggest, AdSense for Content and Orkut are among the many products of this perk.

Ask Meta Filter

TED Talks Sergey Brin and Larry Page: Inside the Google Machine

A 3M tradition known as the "15 percent rule", encourages 3M researchers to spend up to 15 percent of their own time on projects of their own initiative. This stimulates unplanned experimentation and innovations, which have led to the development of 3M products such as ScotchgardTM Fabric protector, ScotchTM Masking tape, Fire-BreakTM Bushfire Fighting Foam and micro-structured technology now used in a growing number of end products.

"Giving people room" to innovate is a 3M tradition, exemplified by the "15% rule" which encourages people to spend 15 percent of their time on projects of their own choosing and initiative.

Innovation in .edu
reCaptcha (Carnegie Mellon University)
Over 60 million CAPTCHAs are solved every day by people around the world. reCAPTCHA channels this human effort into helping to digitize books from the Internet Archive. When you solve a reCAPTCHA, you help preserve literature by deciphering a word that was not readable by computers. Learn more.

reCAPTCHA is a project of the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University.

reCAPTCHA improves the process of digitizing books by sending words that cannot be read by computers to the Web in the form of CAPTCHAs for humans to decipher. More specifically, each word that cannot be read correctly by OCR is placed on an image and used as a CAPTCHA. This is possible because most OCR programs alert you when a word cannot be read correctly.

1993 @ maricopa
In 1993, I was an instructional technologist with the Maricopa Community Colleges-- in a position charged to do R&D in teaching and learning. I had been dabbling with Gopher servers, when a colleague handed me a floppy disk labeled “Mosaic”. My life was never the same. Two weeks later, I had plugged an Apple Macintosh SE/30 into our network, installed MacHTTP, and was running a web server. I did not have to get permission or file paperwork to innovate. The ability to experiment w/o restriction was a key ingredient for a string of opportunities that came from this ability to conduct R&D.

University of Mary Washington Bluehost Experiment
University of Mary Washington is a small, public liberal arts college in Virginia. To provide a place and space for faculty R&D with new web technologies they arranged with a local ISP that offered one click installs as a technology “sandbox”- at a cost of $6.95/month per blog site.

Lead to resulting this year implementation of UMW blog for students
3 weeks into the implementation (Fall 2007)
Blogs: 630
Users: 710
(About the size of one entire class of students -or roughly 25% of the undergraduate population)

See also:
“Easing app deployment with an open source sandbox” Jon Udell, InfoWorld , May 2005 initiated by one James Farmer with a vision..

100,000 edublogs

Brief History of Walls
Great Wall of China- impressive technology, long standing, how many gave their lives for its creation? And some of the Mongols just ran around the ends.
Hadrian’s Wall in the UK- It lost its effectiveness with a change of Roman administration (emperor).
Berlin Wall- Finally made little sense
Israeil Border fence- intended to provide “safetY” in the end creating more division
US Border- not even a wall at all
Austrlalia’s Dog Fence, Rabbit Proff fence - covered vast distances to keep animals at bay.

List of Walls

Berlin Wall
Great Wall
Walls of Jericho
Walls of Troy
Wailing Wall
Iron and Bamboo Curtains
Hadrian's, Antonine Walls, Offa's Dyke

Hadrian's Wall's_Wall

Offa's Dyke

Dutch Boy Dike

Walls of Incompetence

Okay, this one is a bit embarrassing, but for technology, the walls are very hard to maintain perfectly

Student cracks Government's $84m porn filter,23599,22304224-2,00.html

And it happens in the states (don’t they look like cousins?)

Teen Hacks iPhone CNBC

Stop Blocking
Companies everywhere are blocking employee access to the Net, fueled by questionable research and irresponsible pronouncements of self-serving individuals and organizations. This site is designed to serve as a hub information resource for those who believe the benefits of providing access far outweigh the risks.

"Our most valuable resource is our people: energetic, innovative thinkers who care equally about doing great work and developing a culture that's great for all our employees.”
Quote from “Life at Google”

Yes, I am one of those believers in open content, open source!
See 2007 Open Education Conference

Permeable organizations
Yochai Benkler Wealth of Networks
Full interview with Scott Leslie

The Horizon Project, as the centerpiece of NMC's Emerging Technologies Initiative, charts the landscape of emerging technologies for teaching, learning and creative expression and produces the NMC’s annual Horizon Report.

Since the launch of the Horizon Project in March 2002, the NMC has held an ongoing series of conversations and dialogs with hundreds of technology professionals, campus technologists, faculty leaders from colleges and universities, and representatives of leading corporations. Each year, an Advisory Board considers the results of these dialogs and also looks at a wide range of articles, published and unpublished research, papers, and websites to generate a list of technologies, trends, challenges, and issues that knowledgeable people in technology industries, higher education, and museums are thinking about.

Horizon Board
experts from education, industry, technology, art, libraries...
international group
researches current technology scene, suggests topics and discusses potential ideas

started with five research questions to identify technologies, trends, and challenges
results entered into the wiki (no F2F meetings, no phone conferences; all done via wiki and email)
wiki was open the whole time
show wiki and navigate through it
technologies/practices grouped and ranked
12 finalists narrowed down to six topics to feature
trends & challenges were identified & ranked

Resource and example collection by tagging

Horizon Trends- where are they now?
Where are they now?

2007 Collection of items suggested in the sandbox for the horizons

2007 horizons

user generated content-

what it is:
tagging, blogs, podcasts, short video on YouTube, people who don’t just read or look at things on the web, but they make stuff and put it up.

why it’s in here:
it’s so easy to put content up now. You don’t need to ftp, you don’t need a server, you can just create and upload using tools that are easy to get hold of.

communication between students & profs, students & each other; notetaking; short assignments

Million Masterpiece

social networking

what it is:
basically, online communities that work – that connect people and help you find people who are good to know

why it’s in here:
it’s tremendously popular, and it’s happening in all kinds of areas

students do this anyway. Younger staff and faculty do it anyway. We want to figure out noninvasive ways to use it in education.


mobile phones

what it is:
how many of you have a mobile phone? if you asked your students that question, how many would raise their hands?

why it’s in here:
it’s a device that so many people already have; why not use it? lots of places are.

deliver content to little devices that students already have. Let them use it for interaction, for services, for information.

show the iPhone site, talk about Montclair State University and Rave wireless, student info and schedules, etc.

virtual worlds

what it is:
online 3D spaces

why it’s in here:
used to be really hard to visit one, but now it’s not. a basic graphics card, a free download, and you can visit one of several available worlds. SL, as an example, has an economy.

figuring out ways to use these in educational settings. Do they add anything? If so, what, and under what circumstances? Art, distance groups, RL/SL events...

Play2Train – show blog, lecture, etc.

New Scholarship

what it is:
new forms of research and scholarly writing, like blogs, online journals, multimedia pieces, and so on – new places to do research, questions of integrity and authenticity

why it’s in here:
affects education directly

angles of production and evaluation; for faculty, promotion & tenure issues; for students, early publication and research issues

Gamer Theory book

massively multiplayer educational gaming

what it is:
a game that is played by hundreds or thousands of people at one time, can be 3D, 2D, or text

why it’s in here:
very popular in the world right now; WoW has 8 million subscribers; average age is 33 years (computer gamers, Entertainment Software Association)

MMOs offer opportunities for engaging experiences, connections with students around the world, immersive learning


Horizon Research Agenda